Revolutions: High Stakes, Fragile Outcomes
A revolution overturns systems at speed, often through force. History shows that abrupt change, from Libya to the DRC, has cost countless lives while shattering institutions.
“Revolutions are easy to start but extremely difficult to end,” observes South Sudanese commentator Ustaz Gabriel Kiir W. Amoui, recalling the 2013-2018 conflict.
The Evolutionary Alternative
Evolution favours incremental reforms within existing structures. Kenya and South Africa have nurtured economic and technological gains by choosing ballots, courts and consensus over bullets.
Nairobi-based political scientist James Okello notes that evolutionary change “lets societies adjust without burning the house they wish to renovate.”
Lessons From Juba’s Past Conflicts
Southern resistance against Khartoum delivered independence, yet victory arrived at the negotiating table, not on the battlefield. Dialogue, rather than military triumph, ended decades of stalemate.
Repeated civil wars have proved that force can win headlines but seldom durable peace, leaving communities divided and infrastructure ruined.
The Cost-Benefit Equation
Armed rebellion demands human and material sacrifices with no assured reward. Evolution requires patience, but preserves lives, capital and social fabric, vital for post-war states seeking investment.
Economist Ladu Loro warns that every shelled marketplace delays recovery by years, while a signed reform pact unlocks credit within months.
A Call to South Sudan’s Elites
All political forces inside and abroad are urged to re-imagine power contests as policy debates, not military campaigns. A nationwide dialogue with a unified agenda can redirect energies toward health, schools and jobs.
A united house, advocates stress, could transform South Sudan’s image from conflict zone to continental success story.