Fuel as Battlefield Asset
Across North-East Africa, refined fuel now wields the leverage once reserved for foreign currency. Since April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces drive on diesel ferried from Libya’s Kufra corridor, turning access to pumps into a bargaining chip at cease-fire talks.
Tracing the Convoys
Satellite snapshots, customs files and driver interviews reviewed by watchdog The Sentry reveal blue 200-litre jerrycans leaving Jufra airbase and reappearing near El-Fasher within thirty-six hours. At late-October peaks, corridors carried an estimated 1.8 million litres of subsidised Libyan fuel every week.
The Emirati Connection
Investigators describe a reciprocal circuit linking Abu Dhabi and Benghazi. Emirati aircraft allegedly land drones and munitions in eastern Libya, then depart with gold or hard cash. Diesel for the RSF is portrayed as a strategic favour, reinforcing Khalifa Haftar’s decade-long alignment with the UAE.
Impact on Darfur Frontlines
Freshly fuelled technicals helped the RSF press toward Nyala in October, say human-rights monitors. Reliable diesel lets commanders rotate fighters, tow mobile artillery and police newly seized towns, steadily eroding the Sudanese Armed Forces’ dependence on fixed garrisons and sporadic air-strikes.
Strains in Southern Libya
In Sebha and surrounding oases, motorists now queue for days as subsidised stocks disappear eastward. Local mayors lament teenagers abandoning school for smuggling runs, while police complain they lack enough diesel to pursue them. Haftar’s brigades guard refineries and levy transit fees, consolidating authority.
Regional Security Ripples
Intergovernmental Authority on Development envoys warn that porous borders could ferry Sahel extremists alongside fuel trucks, complicating mediation efforts in Juba and Addis Ababa. Western diplomats, focused on Red Sea shipping, have limited tools to distinguish illicit cargo in Libya’s subsidy-distorted downstream market.
Diplomatic Options Ahead
Analysts suggest monitoring input chemicals at the under-used al-Sarir refinery to flag unusual bulk orders rather than reopening Libya’s unity-government debate. Unless regional guarantors broker a fuel embargo, convoys will persist, binding eastern Libya and western Sudan into a single war economy that undermines wider stabilization plans.