UN IPC Numbers Paint Stark Picture
A new Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis projects that 7.5 million South Sudanese could endure acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season from April to July.
The study also finds 28,000 residents of Luakpiny ⁄ Nasir and Fangak counties already in IPC Phase 5, the most severe, indicating household starvation and very high mortality risk.
Children and Mothers at Heightened Risk
Between July 2025 and June 2026 the IPC projects 2.11 million children under five will suffer acute malnutrition, alongside 1.15 million pregnant or breastfeeding women in need of treatment.
Seventy percent of expected cases cluster in Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile, Unity, and Warrap, areas already strained by displacement and limited health infrastructure.
Hotspots Teetering on Famine
Forty-six counties may deteriorate further between October 2025 and March 2026, with Duk, Rubkona, Baliet ⁄ Akoka, Ulang, Nasir, and Abyei Administrative Area at risk of reaching IPC Acute Malnutrition Phase 5 by mid-2026.
Conflict, Floods, Disease Compound Needs
Analysts warn that continuing clashes, large-scale flooding, and a worsening cholera outbreak restrict farming, disrupt trade corridors, and hamper outreach by nutrition teams.
Parts of Luakpiny ⁄ Nasir could tip into famine if insecurity and flooding persist, the IPC cautions, noting limited river transport and damaged roads.
Calls for Swift, Sustained Aid
FAO’s Malo links the crisis to repeated planting disruptions and insists that timely seeds, tools, and veterinary support can prevent deeper hunger.
WFP and UNICEF echo the plea, highlighting that the window for pre-positioning stocks closes fast as the 2026 lean season nears.
McGroarty maintains, “Where stability has returned, people have started to recover. We must sustain this progress to ensure lasting change,” urging donors to fund multi-year programming.