House Arrest Sparks Alleged Assassination Scheme
Dr. Riek Machar’s house arrest in March 2025 quickly birthed rumours of a lethal plan to silence him. Insiders say the idea was shelved after advisers warned President Salva Kiir of global condemnation and possible civil war.
Reports claim Kiir’s circle later explored subtler methods, proposing to use the courts to sideline the opposition leader while avoiding the spectacle of violence.
From Bullets to Bench: Judicial Strategy Emerges
On 23 September 2025 fresh leaks spoke of a revived plot, now centred on a courtroom ambush during future proceedings. SPLM/A-IO publicly confirmed the threat days later, urging vigilance.
Sources allege the scheme involves senior officials including Vice Presidents Benjamin Bol Mel and Taban Deng Gai, plus former petroleum minister Ezekiel Lol Gatkuoth, though Gatkuoth denies any role.
Regional Actors and the Kampala–Juba Axis
Witnesses recount meetings in Entebbe on 2 April 2025 and in Juba on 23 May where Ugandan External Security agents joined Jieng Council of Elders and Kiir loyalists. The phrase “remove him” reportedly echoed repeatedly.
President Yoweri Museveni is said to have pledged military cover for Kiir’s government, strengthening confidence in a non-electoral solution to the Machar question.
Internal Splits and the Question of Ethnicity
A splinter SPLM-IO faction led by Stephen Par Kuol surfaced on 9 April 2025, backing the revitalised peace deal and accusing Machar of obstruction. Loyalists dismiss the group as a government project.
Critics argue the manoeuvres revive memories of 2016, when Taban Deng Gai replaced Machar amid violence, and deepen perceptions of ethnic targeting against the Nuer.
Potential Fallout for South Sudan’s Fragile Peace
Observers warn that removing Machar, whether by bullet or bench, could ignite reprisals, erode the 2018 accord, and push the country toward renewed conflict.
“Any harm to Dr. Machar will carry serious consequences,” Acting SPLM/A-IO Chairman Nathaniel Oyet Pierino told this writer, underscoring the high stakes.
Analysts caution that the crisis reflects a broader trend of using legal instruments to neutralise rivals across East Africa, a tactic that tests regional mechanisms meant to safeguard democratic space.