Renewed Fighting Shakes Fragile Peace
Fresh clashes erupted in Upper Nile and Unity states in March, snapping the power-sharing truce signed in 2018.
Government troops advanced against SPLM-IO positions, citing security threats, but opposition commanders labeled the push a ‘calculated exclusion’ of Vice-President Riek Machar from national affairs.
Machar–Kiir Rift Reopens Old Wounds
President Salva Kiir’s decision to restrict Machar to Juba residence revived memories of the 2013 civil war that cost an estimated 400,000 lives.
Analysts in Nairobi argue the move erodes trust among Nuer and Dinka communities, potentially triggering fresh communal violence far from military front lines.
UN Sounds Regional Alarm
Briefing the Security Council in August, UN Assistant Secretary-General Martha Pobee warned that ‘unchecked operations risk igniting border incidents that no capital can fully control’.
Her statement followed lethal skirmishes on the Ugandan frontier, where both armies blamed navigation errors yet mobilised reinforcements overnight.
Humanitarian Toll Mounts
Aid agencies estimate 7.7 million people face acute food insecurity, with 83,000 on the brink of famine despite a record 2023 harvest shortfall.
Inflows of refugees escaping Sudan’s separate conflict have strained warehouses in Renk, where children queue for sorghum under scorching midday sun.
Election Countdown and Regional Stakes
The transitional timetable sets the first polls for December 2026, yet electoral bodies remain unfunded and disarmament projects stalled.
Diplomats from the African Union say a credible vote could anchor stability, but only if Kiir and Machar reopen dialogue and neighbouring states coordinate mediation instead of troop deployments.