R-ARCSS Under Pressure in Upper Nile
Clashes in Nasir last March between SSPDF troops and SPLA-IO allied fighters froze implementation of the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan. The confrontation placed First Vice-President Dr Riek Machar under house arrest and deepened elite fragmentation.
Observers label subsequent charges of treason and crimes against humanity against Machar and colleagues a politically driven “witch-hunt,” arguing the trial has become a litmus test for South Sudan’s rule of law.
Shifts Inside the Ruling SPLM-IG
Rapid cabinet and military reshuffles rocked the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Government, culminating in the brief removal and swift reinstatement of veteran figures such as Dr James Wani Igga and Gen Paul Nang. Supporters claim stability is slowly returning to party and army structures.
Allied blocs, notably the South Sudan Opposition Alliance and Other Political Parties, have split along similar lines, adding to a widening trust deficit that negotiators admit now hampers virtually every clause of the peace accord.
Electoral Clock Ticking Toward 2026
The parties extended the transitional period to December 2026, assuring citizens it would be the final delay. Yet key timelines inside the National Elections Act demand a constitution, constituency boundaries and census data long before ballots can be printed.
Without amending the peace deal to decouple election laws from an unfinished permanent constitution, lawyers argue the current framework is legally void, raising fears of another postponement.
Citizens Want the Vote Despite Risks
Recent perception surveys show enthusiasm for elections remains high among young South Sudanese, even as they anticipate potential violence. Community activist Edmund Yakani warns that failing to fund institutions like the National Elections Commission will only deepen public frustration.
Four Scenarios on the Table
Academics, women mediators and civil society outline options: voting solely in the 102 existing constituencies; holding executive elections first; installing a technocratic caretaker government; or tying another delay to the Kenya-led Tumaini talks with armed holdout groups.
None of these paths are mutually exclusive, and analysts stress that consensus through inclusive dialogue, not decrees, will determine whether polling booths open in 2026 or another extension beckons.
Opportunity Within Crisis
Professor Luka Biong Deng notes that every impasse offers space for innovation. He argues the South Sudanese Women Mediators platform could transform current stalemate into a credible roadmap, provided elites muster the political will to compromise.
For now, the election date remains pencilled in. Whether the ink dries will depend less on paperwork and more on trust among leaders who, for many citizens, still hold the nation’s fragile future in their hands.